Question
What is Golden Triangle & Golden Crescent
Reason for Opium Cultivation → Pharmaceuticals
Analysis
What is Diplomacy
Diplomacy is art of letting someone have it, your way
Diplomacy is The Art of Skating on thin ice w/o getting into Deep Water
Syllabus and PYQP Analysis - from PYQP PDF
- Marks System
- GS 2 - 50 Marks
- GS 3 - 50 Marks
- Current Affairs Centric & Background of Relations is Needed
- Prelims Exam - Generally on Current Affairs
Summaries
Extra Data in Class
- Example of Indian Bangladesh with US & Russia
- Democracy Political Liberty → US Flag Bearer
- Communists have One Party Liberty → Russia Flag Bearer
- India Pakistan War 1971
- Pakistan Politics dominated by Punjabi Muslims
- Shaikh Mujeeb ur Rehman not given role by Pakistan
- Never Deny u want Power. real Reason for Power → Power Increases the Chances of Survival
- Here in Pursuits of War → Wars become Inevitable
- Core Interest of States → Integrity and Sovereignty → Power → Power with State is that Increases the chances of Survival
- Wars are fought on three reasons
- Gold - Wealth
- Glory
- Gospel - Religion
- Failure of Diplomacy is War.
- Irony of Politics is that u need force to maintain peace
- Prevention of War is possible, that is the essence of diplomacy
- The notion of Utopian Peace
- Arabs and Jews → United Palestine
- Pakistan and India →
- China is a Democracy →
- Iran-Saudi Tension →
- Why this Utopia cant be achieved?
- Defence Lobby doesn't want Peace
- Pharma doesn't want a Healthy Population
- World Tensions & Conflicts are pushed by Capitalist
- Way forward for world peace is Gandhi
- The two Biggest Mafias Are Defence and Pharma
- World Politics is Power Politics
- How to maintain peace
- we need Army
- Peace - Diplomacy
- When the UN was created the mandate was to
- Not Turn earth into Heaven
- But to Prevent Earth from turning into hell
What is Power
Power is the Ability to Influence
Elements of Power
1. Economy
- Strong Economy is the Element of Power
- China Needs Semi Conductor Chips of Taiwan
2. Defence
3. Reliance & Allies
- QUAD - new Endeavour
- NATO - Exist
- WARSAW
- CENTO
- SEATO
4. Political Stability
5. Location
Human Efficiency is better in Temperate Latitude
World Politics is Geo Politics
Cold War was a War of Ideology
- Socialism Means State Controlled Economy
- Communist Means One Party Economy
- China is a Communist Country but not a Socialist State as they Liberalised
- Totalitarian or Authoritarian States are not Socialism
- Capitalism Led to Imperialism
4 Components of Household in an Economy
Land
Capability Found in Natural Resources is Land. Efficiency of Land can be Increased, not the Land itself. It is a fixed asset
Labour
Physical Capability found in Human Resources. It is a fixed asset
Capital
- Capability found in Man Made Resource is Capital
- There are three types of Capital
- Physical Capital - Machines
- Financial Capital - Money
- Intellectual Capital - Ideas *** → Most Important Capital
- Business Idea → Ownership Rights → Trademark
- Scientific Idea → Ownership Rights → Patents
- Literary Idea → Ownership Rights → Copyright
Trademark + Patents + Copyrights → IPR
Economy which will generate more IPR, will be more prosperous.
Note : Usage of Land and Labour is done by Capital
Entrepreneurship
Ability to Generate New Ideas in Entrepreneurship
Most Dynamic Factor
Who Will Optimally Utilise Land Layout and Capital
- Every Economy has 4 Sectors
- Govt
- Production Sector
- Household
- Financial Market
Why did Socialism Fail?
- Socialism Failed because of Suppression of Entrepreneurship
- Socialism takes away from people the very Incentive
- Types of Entrepreneurs
- Social Entrepreneurs → Raja Ram Mohan Roy
- Political Entrepreneur → M K Gandhi
- Bureaucratic Entrepreneur → T N Seshan
What is Development? Can You Decide What is Development?
Development is a Qualitative Term and not a Quantitative Term
The better Word for Development is Empowerment
Who are Fundamentalists?
- Rigidity in the Value and Belief System
- You want to impose your beliefs
- By Violence → Violent Fundamentalist
- By Preaching → Reformer
Important International Organisation
Organisation | Full Form | No & List of Countries | HQ & Founded In |
SAARC | South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation | 8 - Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan & Sri-Lanka | Kathmandu, 1985 |
BIMSTEC | ㅤ | ㅤ | ㅤ |
SCO | ㅤ | ㅤ | ㅤ |
GCC - Gulf Cooperation Council | ㅤ | ㅤ | ㅤ |
Arab League | ㅤ | ㅤ | ㅤ |
OIC - Organisation of Islamic Countries | ㅤ | ㅤ | ㅤ |
Organisation | No of Countries | List of Countries | HQ & Founded In |
United Nations | ㅤ | ㅤ | ㅤ |
United Nations Security Council | ㅤ | ㅤ | ㅤ |
United National Development Program | ㅤ | ㅤ | ㅤ |
Extra Concepts in Class
The Notion of Development - India’s Paradox
Service Sector Employs Least (Marks of Underdeveloped Countries) and Gives Most to the GDP (Mark of Developed Countries).
Wealth of Much in the Hands of Few → Sign of Equality
Left, Centre & Right?
Left → Sharing Equality through Poverty
Right → Sharing Equality through Prosperity
The Three Different Worlds?
- Liberal Democratic World - First World
- Socialist Communist - Second World
- NAM Countries - Third World
Is India Over Populated?
Criteria of Over Population → Riots, Protest
Not the Criteria of → Avg Popln Density, Resources and Populations
Why IR & Quest for Power in Bureaucracy?
- Ability to Influence is Power
- You Need Power to Empower
- Biggest Threat is Left Wing Extremism which came into existence due to Corruption & Underdevelopment
- In a Democracy Power should be Gained through Ballot & not Bullet
- Means are Important than Goals
The Most Important Trait of a Leader is?
Decisiveness
Out of 120 Countries 118 Countries Support Indian Entry to Permanent Status in the UN
Extra Terms in Class
Nationalist
Love for Country
Patriotic
Ready for Constructive Rationale Debates
Ultra Nationalist give Nationalism Certificates to Patriotic
Ultra Nationalist
Extra Love for Country
More Dangerous
Religious
Believe in a Religious
Theist
Believe in God
Deist
Does not believe in Religion
Pseudo Secularism
As by Advnai
Majority is expected to be Secular
Weapon Effect in Psychology
Everyone Having Gun will Lead to Peace or Violence
Class Flow and Dictation
What is International Relations?
International Actors - UN, Countries, Super Powers
What are the Determinants of the Foreign Policy of a Nation?
1. National Interest
2. Maintaining Peaceful Ties and Security
3. Geographical Position of a Country
US has Maritime Borders and Friendly Neighbours in South and North
Indian Geo Location issue is that of Terrorism and Internal Security from Pakistan & Afghanistan
US took assistance from Pak due to its location for handling issues in Afghanistan
China needs Pak’s Strategic Location for China Pakistan Corridor
Active Engagement of India in SCO due to its importance as Central Asian Countries being Neighbours of Kazakhstan
4. Historical Context
- India Chose NAM and Pakistan became ally of USA
- As Pak became part of CENTO & SEATO
- Russia still perceives NATO Expansion to Ukraine as threat to Russia
- Due to partition India will feel envy with pak and vice versa
- Our Cultural Policy is based on historical context of Middle Path
- India in its oldest past had never had expansionist policies
5. The times in Which it is Conducted
Geo Economics is closely associated with Geo Politics
India US during Cold war and now is completely different
6. At Any time it is governed by the Gro Politics of that Period
7. Needs and Interests of a Country - Economics, Security, Military, Energy & Development
What Determines the Foreign Policy of the State?
National Interest
Subjective National Interest → Changes in Time with Space
Objective National Interest → Doesn't Change with Time & Space
- They are also called Core National Interest
- Core National Interest Are: Integrity and Sovereignty of the Nation
- Here Interests are
- Territorial Integrity
- Food Security
- Energy Security
- Water Security
- Example :
- Russia's Justification of Ukraine
- Indias Justification of 1962 & 65 War
- An instance of Political Deadlock in IR for Integrity & Sovereignty Are
- For India & Pakistan → Kashmir
- For China → Taiwan
What has India done for the Protection of Indian Integrity & Sovereignty?
- NAM - Protected our Hardened Sovereignty
- Wars
- Strenghtening Defence by IRNSS etc
- Acquired Nuclear Weapons
- Decided Not to Sign NPT & CTBT
- Ensuring FS, WS, Energy Security
Interest Keeps changing in time and space but the core remains the same
- Example of China and USA
- Case of India
- India before 1991 → Import Subsidy
- India After 1991 → Export Protection
- Asia was a Market for Us not US due to quality of goods
- Hence we started look east policy
- Hence with Change in Economic Policies our International Stance also changes
Sample Question: There are No Permanent Friends and enemies in world politics, it will be convergence or divergence of Interests. Comment.
Comment Means - Your Opinion → Whatever it is Substantiate the Cases
Facts Related to IR
Neighbours of India & their Political System
Ba Ch Pa N main M B A + Coastal Sri Mal
Country | Capital | Political System |
Bangladesh | Dhaka | Republic, Parliamentary Democracy |
China | Beijing | Authoritarian Communist One Party |
Pakistan | Islamabad | Republic, Parliamentary Democracy |
Nepal | Kathmandu | Republic, Parliamentary Democracy
Until 2009 - Constitutional Monarchy |
Myanmar | Naypyidaw | De Jure Unitary Assembly Independent Republic / Military Rule |
Bhutan | Thimphu | Constitutional Monarchy |
Afghanistan | Kabul | Theocratic Anarchy |
Sri Lanka | Colombo | Semi Presidential Constitutional Republic |
Maldives | Male | Republic, Parliamentary Democracy |
Parts of Asia & Their Countries
- West Asia / Gulf Countries - 18 Countries
West Asia includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen
- Central Asia / Panj Countries - 05 Countries
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
- South Asia - India Pak - 11 Countries
Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Timor-Leste, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam
- South Eastern Asia - 11 Countries
Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Timor-Leste, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam
- East Asia - 07 Countries
China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, Mongolia, North Korea, South Korea, and Taiwan
Total No of Countries in the World Are ?
195 Countries
Total No of Countries Recognised by UN Are ?
193 Countries + 2 ( Holy See & State of Palestine) are observer countries
Continent with Largest No of Countries Are ?
Africa is the continent with the most countries. There are 54 countries on the African continent. About 1.3 billion people live in Africa.
Afghanistan Became a Member of SAARC in ?
2007
Foundation of BIMSTEC was done in which year and by which declaration ?
1997 through Bangkok Declaration
Summary of Indian Policies
Neighbourhood First Policy
Neighbourhood First Policy of India, a core component of India's foreign policy, focuses on peaceful relations and collaborative synergetic co-development with its South Asian neighbours of the Indian subcontinent encompassing a diverse range of topics, such as economic, technology, research and education, connectivity …
Look East Policy
Look East policy is an effort by the government of India to cultivate extensive economic and strategic relations with the nations of Southeast Asia to bolster its standing as a regional power and a counterweight to the strategic influence of the People's Republic of China.
Look West Policy
- Look West Policy is the overall Indian government’s strategy in dealing with the West Asian nations. It was adopted by the Indian government in 2005 and has not gained much attention since then.
- In recent years, under the present government, the same strategy has been followed with increased intensification.
- Currently, the Look West Policy focuses on three main axes:
- The Arab Gulf countries
- Israel
- Iran
Look North Policy
Look North Policy is the important policy of the India’s foreign policies. It was initiated by P.V. Narasimha Rao government and then it will be continuing by successor governments and it is still ongoing. India’s abroad first air base, Ayni Air base at Tajikistan, becoming the full member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, becomes the part of Chabahar port in Iran, beginning of Mumbai-Moscow Corridor etc. all are the part of the India’s Look North Policy. India is considered one of the emerging major powers of the world. This emerging is accredited to several indicators, the primary ones being its demographic trends and a rapidly expanding economy and military. But India also needs to continue its growing status and becomes an influential actor on the international stage when compared to the United States, China, United Kingdom, France and Russia. Look North Policy to Connect Central Asia Policy may become helpful tool for India to become a major global powe
Sphere of Influence
In the field of international relations, a sphere of influence (SOI) is a spatial region or concept division over which a state or organisation has a level of cultural, economic, military or political exclusivity
India's Concentric Circle Approach to its International Relations
India and its Immediate Neighbours - Circle 1
India is Pursuing a concentric circle approach in its foreign policy since independence. The Core Area of our focus is our Immediate Neighbourhood (South Asian Countries). India is pursuing Neighbourhood First Policy since its Independence
In South Asia our Sphere of Influence is needed in SAARC (7+2) Countries
Writing in IR Language : China is asserting its hegemony in our Sphere of Influence
India Started the Policy of Neighbourhood First under Doctrine of Panchsheel → SAARC+1 = SAARC + China
BIMSTEC = SAARC - Pak - Afg + Thailand
Immediate Neighbourhood → SAARC + 2(China and Myanmar)
India and its Extended Neighbourhood - Circle 2
South East Asia - LEP
- Earlier → Look East Policy
- Since 2014 → Act East Policy
- China is Projecting South East Asia as its Sphere of Influence
- Important Organisation in ASEAN
Central Asia - LNP
- Look North Policy
- Organisation → SCO
- HW : When India became a member of SCO
West Asia- LWP
- Look West Policy
- Major States
- Israel
- Iran - Claims Leadership of Shia World
- Saudi Arabia
- Organization
- GCC
- Arab League
- OIC
The leadership of Islam is Claimed by
- Shia Islam
- Iran
- Sunni Islam
- Saudi Arabia
- Turkey - Erstwhile Ottoman Empire
- Pakistan - Dichotomy of Nuclear Weapon & Verge of Bankruptcy
India and its ties with Major Players of the World - Circle 3
Major Players Like → US, Russia, Japan, EU, Africa
Roles Played by India in Major International Organisations - Circle 4
UN
BRICS
NAM
QUAD
IBSA
NPT & CTB
Global Nuclear Disarmament
Theories in IR → Realist, Idealist & Liberalist
In Science we have Universal Laws, In Humanities we have Theories. Theories can change
The theory is a Systematic Explanation of an Idea
Idealist Theory → Idealist Scholars
- Nehru’s Approach → According to Realists, Nehru was Idealist
- There Ultimate Endeavour is that State & Its Leaders Shall Strive for Peace
- According to Realists, this is too much of an Idealism to hold
- According to this theory, the state strives for Peace.
- State Believes in Co-Operation
- States do not prefer war as wars are perceived as harmful
- According to Idealist the reason for war is the lack of understanding among the states towards each other's interests and if states will be able to understand each other's interests then they will cooperate and will maintain peace in the international system
Realist Theory → Realist Scholars
- There is no Ethics in Politics
- For them, Politics is the Pursuit of Power. Hence they follow Power Politics
- According to Realist Scholars, Idealists overestimated the role of morality in world politics and neglected the role of power as an instrument in state politics
- According to Realists, Each State or Nation intends to acquire power and there is a constant to acquire more power which will disturb the power equilibrium and this will bring the states into conflict with each other
- Thus Wars become Inevitable, According to Realist, states will justify war as wars will be fought for the survival of the state which is the core national interest
- Hence we can also conclude that War becomes inevitable to gain power
With Increased Power → There is an Increased Chance of Survival
Liberalist Theory → Liberal Scholars
Introduction
- Liberalism means belief in the Idea of Liberty.
- Liberalism as a theory of IR says that According to this theory states are NOT merely Instruments of War and states do cooperate with each other
- States need to cooperate because they have to ensure the welfare of themselves and the masses
Democratic and Welfarist States have to ensure the Welfare of their People
- Thus as States become Interdependent and if a situation of conflict will arise they will try to resolve the dispute peacefully and they will not opt for war, thus as cooperation will increase the chances of conflict will reduce
The stronger the Cooperation, the Lesser the Chances of War
Indo China War is being prevented because of High Interdependence
- Example of China and India
- Border Dispute
- W - Aksai China
- E - Arunachal Pradesh
- Issue of Tibet
- Dalai Lama
- Supporting Pakistan on the Issue of Kashmir
- Building Infra in PoK
- Supporting Pak in Nuclear and Missile Program
- Not Supporting India’s UNSC and NSG
- China Building Dam on River Tsangapo, India being a Lower Beneficiary of River
Areas on which we have tensions, divergence with china
Despite these issues with Minor Conflicts in the Galwan and Doklam, we aren't on a full-fledged war with China
Note: India has Pharmaceuticals & IT Goods. China is restricting access to India, an issue that we have raised in WTO several times
- Example of India and Pakistan
- We don't have much Interdependence but still, we haven't gone to war full-fledged
- 1971 War
- 1999 War
- After Uri Attack → Surgical Strike
- After Pulwama Attack →Balakot Strike
- Is Nuclear Weapon a Source of Peace?
No, it is not. Indian Govt is committed to Nuke Free World.
Gandhi Says “Means are more Important than Goals”
The goal is Peace. Hence Means cannot be a Weapon
- There are Two Options
- Realist → Nuclear Deterrence → Here Pak and India were both Nuclear Powers but they fought the 1971 and 1999 wars. Hence, Deterrence can fail
- Liberalism → Interdependence → This is a much more fail-proof system
- “The stronger the Cooperation, the Lesser the Chances of War” → How to Increase Interdependence or Cooperation ?
Sub-School of Liberalism → Republican Liberalism
- This Theory Believes that Democracy can create Peaceful Global Environment as Democratic States are more transparent and are based on Rule of Law
- Democratic States are deemed to be Law Abiding
- According to this Theory, Democracies do not fight war
Home Work: How Many Times through Coup Military Took Over in Pakistan ?
- Democracies do not fight war with each other as democratic governments want to ensure the welfare of the masses but democracies do fight wars against authoritarian regimes as they see these regimes as threart for world peace as these authoritarian regimes do not work accordin to the rule of law. they curb fundamental freedoms and they are threat to or for world peace
- Hence Democracies resort to replace, these authoritarian regimes with those people and parties who are pro democracy
- Sometimes, they replace them with puppet regimes and this leads to more conflict, unrest and instability in world politics
(According to India Democracy on Gun Point should not be Imposed or Acceptable)
Home Work: What was Arab Spring ?
Sub-School of Liberalism → Sociological Imperialism
Introduction
According to this theory, Multiple Actors Interact and Negotaitet within the state. More is the communication between People and Society, Lesser will be the chances of Conflict
Thus, this Theory Emphasises on the Role of Non Violent Non State Actors in World Politics
Definition of Non State Actors 👇👇👇
Example of Non State Actors :
Non Violent → Civil Society, MNC, Diaspora
Violnent → Terrorist
Is UN is a Non State Actor or a State Actor ?
UN was created by State but it is Non State. Despite its failure countries meet on the platform of UN
Concept of State Power
This Theory Emphasises on the role of Soft Power of the State.
Soft Power is the Ability to attract and co opt rather than be coercion (hard power) which is using force or giving money as a means of persuasion
Resources of Soft Power Are:
Which Country is Most Influential on India as a Soft Power? USA, Japan, South Korea, German, Italy, China, Russia
US Hard Power has been questioned by → Russia & Iran
How Does India Increase its Soft Power → Innovation, Gandhi, Bollywood
Aid in Normal Times trying to Influence the Policy of Country is Hard Power
Aid in times of needs and disasters is Soft Power
Problems with Soft Power
Nation & State - From Blue Handout
4 Element of State: Example Islamic State of Syria and Iraq
- Territory
- Population
- Government
- Sovereignty
Terrorists are one of the most Sovereign People
States who joined Supra National Entities like the UN compromises the Sovereignty of that State
Why the Willingily States Joined this Supra National
There are some issues that cannot be handled in Isolation. For Example Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Climate Change
- Another Element - Recognition
Recognition from 2/3rd people of the US
Some Basic Terms Used in International Relations Are
Colonialism & Imperialism
Both Colonialism and Imperialism imply domination of people's life and culture, colonialism may be done by companies who secure special trading privileges. Whereas Imperialism is done by States through diplomacy to acquire territories. Thus Imperialism includes Political Control, Thus Imperialism will always be more Aggressive and Imperialism will give birth to Mercantilism.
The Era of Imperialism ended with World War 2 but the Era of Neo Imperialism Started.
Neo-Imperialism
Indirect Political Influence in other countries is seen as Policies of Neo Imperialism
Neo-Colonialism
The practise under which an advanced state or a developed country does not maintain its directive political control in the foreign territory but takes advantage of its superior position in trade and technology uses the resources of the developing countries as a source of cheap labour, raw material and the market for their own products.
It's a Subtle Method of Economic Exploitation of Developing Countries by the Developed States
Example: Debt Trap Imperialism or Yuan Imperialism of China in South Asia Countries → Its an Example of Soft Power
India’s Dichotomy is that Stone Age and Digital Age exist at the Same Time
Hegemony
Hegemony in the International System is the Political Economic or Military Dominance over other states.
Sphere of Influence
Its an area where there is no Sovereign Control, but still states consider this region important for their economic and political security as states have a considerable national interest in that region
Strategic Depth
States want to maintain their strategic depth within their sphere of influence
It's a Policy where State A tries to enhance its influence in State B to cut down the influence of State C
Both India and Pakistan are pursuing the policy of maintaining strategic depth against each other within Afghanistan. with the withdrawal of US from Afghanistan, the Taliban has taken over the Political Control within Afghanistan which has increased the Strategic Depth of Pakistan within the region
Strategic Restraint
This term is used for conflict resolution where a state decides not to use force to resolve the conflicts but deploy diplomatic option to attain their objectives
Diplomatic Option instead of War is done only in Two Cases
- Interdependence - Liberals’ View
- Deterrence - Realist View
Logic of Deterrence
Detterance means to frighten the Potential Aggressor. Detterance works on Game Theory that makes the game of the war so costly that victory will not be the worth of its cost
Deterrence works on MAD Doctrine i.e Mutually Assured Destruction
Hyphenation and De-Hyphenation
India's Hyphenation of Israel in the context of Palestine Israel
India has Hyphenation towards Arabs during Pre Cold War. India has Dehyphenation towards Palestine and Israel Post Cold War
De Hyphenation means balancing two regional players without showing any preference over the other. Giving Preference to One over the other is known as the Policy of Hyphenation
Netanyahu Greeted Modi at Airport by saying “Bahaut Der Kar Di Aate Aate”
World needs to Recognise that Diplomacy is NOT a Zero Sum Game (Which means Others’ Gain is my Loss) rather a policy of dehyphenation should take centre stage
If De Hyphenation will take centre stage, its outcome will be Multi Alligments and if zero-sum will takes centre stage, its outcome will be Military Alliances
The reality of World Politics - Military Alliances & Zero Sum Game
Hope is of → Multi Alignment & No Zero Sum Game
Natural Allies v/s Strategic Partners
Those States who share similar security threats and to mitigate the same, the states decide to come closer and pool their resources are considered Strategic Partners
Example: Alliance of India with Russia
Example: Nepal & China Alignment
Example: QUAD
Those States who share common values that are cultural, Political and Economic Values with Each other are seen as Natural Allies
Example: India and Pakistan
Example: World War 1 - US UK France
Track 1 & Track 2 Diplomacy
Track 1 is Official Diplomacy where the Head of the State and Diplomats interact and negotiate with each other
Example: PM Modi in the USA Interacting with US Heads
Track 1.5
Example: PM Modi (State Actor) in the USA Interacting with Corporate Leaders of the USA (Non-State Actor)
Track 2 is the use of non-violent non-state actors in diplomacy
Example: Kartapur Corridor
Cold War
Class Running Notes
- Cold War was a war of Ideologies - Capitalism v/s Socialism
- Example: 1971 War → It was more than the Ideological Rift when US Supported Pak and Russia Supported India
- Arenas of Cold War
- India & Pakistan
- North & South Korea
- North & South Vietnam
- Afghanistan
- Russian Berlin Wall
- Cuban Missile Crisis
- Every Corner of the World
- Cold War in Space - Space Race
- Factors that Led to the Division of India and Pakistan
- Muslim League - Jinnah’s Power Aspiration
- Politics was not communal before 1857
- British sowed Divide & Rule - Interpreted history in communal war - Fight Between Akbar and Shivaji was Power War and Not a Religious War
- Failure of INC to keep Muslims in Confidence
- The tone of the Socio-Religious Reform Movement
- United India in the Hands of INC was a threat to the US with Russian Alignment
- With Division Pak Joining US Army Alliance US
- The US kept Democracy Fragile in Pak, which served the interests of the US
- Kashmir Issue was taken to UN by Nehru as he was an Idealist, thinking that Indian Independence Act had nowhere talks of Plebiscide in its Charter of Detail
But Britain Supported the Plebiscite in favour of Pakistan because of its location and its connectivity to Central Asia and continuity to Pakistan which would have served the interest of the US
- Let us Even Assume that the creation of Pakistan was the want of Indian Muslims, then they would have wanted to keep good and cordial relations with the Indian Govt but it didn't happen
This is a Clear Indication that it was a west controlled act and the west didn't want to keep that region and Indo Pak Relations Good
Class Notes Dictation
Introduction to Cold War
Cold War was the Sequence of Events after World War 2, till the Disintegration of Soviet Events in 1991, where the Two Superpowers Competed for Hegemony in the Domains of Economy, Politics and Military.
During Cold War, each site, adopted policies to strengthen itself and weaken the other, falling short of an actual war
During Cold War, the World was Divided into Two Blocks
- Communists Block - Led by Soviet
- Capitalist Block - Led by US
Reasons for High Tensions During Cold War
1. Prevalence of Bipolar World
Presence of Two Equal Super Powers with Two Different Ideologies of State, Society and Governance which are incompatible with Each Other.
2. Prevalence of Domino Effect
Why Domino Effect in Communalism and not in Capitalism?
Communism was a Threat to the Governments of Capitalist Countries and thus the Leaders of these countries feared Communism.
They feared that if one country will become communist, then the neighbouring countries will follow a similar pattern or suit, thus threatening capitalism
It was the fear of a domino effect that forced the US participation in the Vietnam War because after China and North Korea, turning Vietnam into a Communist State would have put Japan under the direct threat of Communism where the US had pumped or invested a lot of money to make Japan, a thriving Capitalist Economy
3. Role of Leaders
According to Western Scholars, Stalin is to be Blamed for Cold War Tension as the aspiration of Stalin was to spread communism outside the Soviet and his objective was to destroy communism
But According to Russian Scholars Stalin acted only in his Defence, rather it was TRUMAN the US President to be blamed for Cold War Tension as it was he who provoked Russian Hostility Unnecessarily
After the End of World War 2 Truman Announced, the Truman Doctrine through which the US made it clear that the US will not revert back to the Policy of Isolation as the US did after the end of WW1. Rathet this doctrine Implied the Adoption of a Policy of Containment under which the US announced that the US is committed towards the containment of Communism not just in Europe but throughout the world
Under this Doctrine, the US announced Marshal Plan also known as ERP (European Recovery Program). Officially this Plan sought to remove Hunger, Poverty and Chaos but this plan has a hidden political agenda or aim of containment of Communism. Under this Plan, the US invested around 1 Lac 30 K Million Dollar Aid in the Western European Countries
Keywords: Truman Doctrine (Policy of Containment), Marshall Plan & Molotov Plan
Marshal Plan: Soviets Dollar Imperialism && US Hard Power or Aid Diplomacy
Stalin Denounced Marshal Plan as Dollar imperialism devised to Increase US influence over western Europe and to Interfere in the Soviet Sphere of Influence i.e Eastern Europe.
Though there are few scholars who believe that both US and USSR are equally responsible for the Cold War Tensions as both Fail to Develop Mutual Trust and due to High Mutual Suspicion, Any Action from One Side was seen as having aggressive intent by the other
4. Clash of Interests in Classes
The Clash of Classes in Every State was also responsible for high tensions during the cold war as each class had stakes in one form of Economic System over other
while workers supported communism, the propertied class supported capitalism as the fear that the spread of communism will result at an end to private wealth and the loss of political power
w/o local support Soviets and the US would not have been able to interfere so frequently and successfully in the internal affairs of other countries
5. Failure of the UN (United Nations)
Lack of Confidence in the UN to provide the Solution for Important Problems, Lack of Powers available to the UN and Lack of Impartiality in the functioning of the UN.
These weaknesses added for causing High Tensions in the Cold War
HW: When was NATO, CENTO & War Saw Dissolved as NATO Still Exist
NAM - Non-Alignment Movement
Introduction
Bandung - Indonesia; Belgrade - Serbia
First Summit in 1961
First Conference 1959
Kosovo Independence is Disputed
During Cold Warm the Main Objective of Indian Foreign Policy Was
- To Preserve our Hard Earned Sovereignty
- To Promote Rapid Economic Development to Strengthening Democracy
- To Work for Afro-Asian Unity
Historical Background
Nehru Visioned to achieve these Objectives through the Straetgy of NAM, so there was a Vision in Nehru to achieve these Objectives. Hence Nehru decalred that Strategy of NAM does not mean Strategy of Isolation. India will not remain away from Global Affairs.
NAM Served the Following INterest for India during Cold War.
- India was able to balance both the super power as neither of the block could afford to take India for Granted
- As a Nascent Democracy, India was able to Channelise its energy towards growth and development
- Through NAM India Emerged as Leader of Third World Countries or Developing Countries and was able to assert its political weight more than its economic weight in its world politics
- Though NAM grouping was criticised by the US and the West as Western Leadership projected NAM as the Team B of Soviet Union
Also West Blamed India for taking Dual Stand on Crucial International Issues ; as when Britain attacked Egpyt on issue of Suez Canal on the issues with Suez Crisis, 1956
- India led the World Protest against this Military Action of Britain and France. However with Soviet Union Invaded Hungary to Protect the Communist Govet of Hungary. India never joined its Public Condemnation
- Also When India Signed the Friendship Treaty (For 20 Years) with Soviet Union in 1971. US blamed India for diluting the Principles of NAM
Mains PYQP
Question
Critically Analyse the Relevance of NAM in the Contemporary Times
Is NAM Relevant ? Comment
Answer
- Intro
- Issues
- Cold War Ended and NAM was created though it was made to save countries from choosing blocks
- Since NAM - NAMs are Pro West
- B/w NAM Issues not Solved - Not India and Pak
- NAM failed as a Pressure Group - Iran NAM State but US Sanctioned unilaterally
- Relevance - From Booklet of Blue Workbook
- Conclusion
- from NAM to MAM
Objectives of Indian Foreign Policy
To Preserve Indias Soverignity and Integrity
War, NAM, Nuclear War - Anyting and Everything
To Protect the Right to Follow Independent Foreign Policy based on our own National Interest
Example
India Signed Defence Pacts with US
- LEMO - Logistic Exchange
- BETA -
- COMCASA - Given Access to US on our Behalf
To Pursue an Independent Foriegn Policy, with a Firm Commitment to Remain away from Military Alliances and Blocks
Military Alliances: NATO, CENTO, SEATO, WARSAW - Based on Concept of Collective Defence - Attack on one is considered as Attack on All
Countries Rely on Collective Defence and Self Defence and not believe in Collective Security
QUAD was seen as Alliance of Democracy by US
QUAD was seen as Economic Alliance by India
QUAD was seen as Miitary Alliance by Japan
China calls QUAD as Asian NATO
India Toh also said that: China can also join QUAD
US was giving India : LEMOA and COMCASA in exchange for QUAD
US calls India as Closest Defence Alliance outside NATO
India is with China if China aspires for a Multipolar World and Supports Voting Rigths in WTO, BRICS New Debelopment Bank, SCO etc
India is with US if China aspires for Cinocentric World by threatening Taiwan and Escalating Tensions with India
Now After, Covid. US blamed china for Covid, Galwan Issue with India Escalated. India allowed Australlia to be a member of QUAD and into Malabar Exersice. This would have projected to the world that QUAD is a Military Alliance
Hence, Statement from First Virtual Summit of QUAD was that QUAD is more than a Military Alliance, like Vaccines, Climate Change, Communication etc →
This Ended the Indian Divergence with US (as US wanted India to Allow Entry of Australlia in QUAD)
HW: When was CENTO, SIATO, WarSaw was dissolved
Conclusion Based on
Pivot Policy of US && Concircle Policy of India
India is committed Towards Multipolar World
NAM & BRICKS & Reforms in World Bank
To Promote Unity and Solidarity Amongst Third World Countries for Securing an Equitable Share in World Politics
NAM, IBSA (to promote south south collaboration) → India wants to project itself as leader of Gobal South, Indias acitve role in G20
India will cooperate at all the levels from regional to global to tackle or counter the challenges of Terrorism, Protection of Human Rights, Climate Change.
To Maintains Indias Nuclear Independence with a commitment in favour of Global Nuclear Disarmament
Step Towards Nuclear Independence → NPT & CTBT
Why Did India Test Nuclear Weapon in 1974 & 1998 twice where as Pakistan Tested only once in 1998
To Secure a Deserving Place in the emerging International Order as one of the fast emerging Nuclear and Defence Space & Economic Power
We Seek Due Place → by Means of Works for Permanent Membership in Multi Lateral Organisation
4 Export Control Regimes
Australiam Group
MTCR - Missile Technology Control Regimes
Wassenar Arrangement
Nuclear Supplier Group
HW : Objectives of Four Groups.
Note : India Joined the Top Three Bodies and is aiming to be a part of Nuclear Supplier Group
Obama Said in Joint Sitting of Parliament that India is NOT emerging but India has emerged on World Stage
Out of 5, 4 P5 Support Indias Entry in UNSC & NSG
Out of all Non Signatory NPT Countries, NSG has given waiver to India for Nuclear Trade with Countries of NSG
Objective of NSG is to cut down Nuclear Proliferation
World came to us for Russai Ukraine Mediation
Arabs wanting talks with Israel Palestine Issue
India Emering as Pharma Hub Mission
Rescue Missions in different countries
International Solar Alliance
Role of India in G 20
Britain is out of Brexit, Britain wants to Renergise Commonwealth, CWHOGM Queen of England met with only Indian PM
Indian Nuclear Stance
GND - Global Nuclear Disarmament
Class Running Notes
- NPT → Nucleat Proliferation Treaty, 1968 → To Cut Down Horizontal Proliferation
- Preamble of NPT says ; To Achieve Global Nuclear Disarmament
- 5 Countries Allowed to Have Weapon P5 → NWS (Nuclear Weapon States)
- Other Countries are called as NNWS (Non Nuclear Weapon States) - Out of NNWS - 4 Have Nuclear Weapon
- Any One After 1967 → are called Legitimate Weapon State
USA, UK, France, Russia, China
Justification for P5 (Permanent) having Weapon → They are Responsible.
Namely - India, Pak, Israel, North Korea
- CTBT → Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, 1990’s → To Cut Down Verticla Proliferation → Who Have Weapon Show Not Test Further
- NSG - Uranium Technology Equipment
This Technology will only be given to the country which will sign NPT
NSG will support them in Technology of Civil Nuclear Technology
Electricity through Nuclear - Cheap & Green House Free
India, Pak, Israel refused to Sign NPT → Hence they should not be given technology and trade with NSG States
in 2008 Waiver has been given to India → Becasue of 2008 Financial Crisis in World → GE Electric & Westing House
- HW: Since Waiver With How Many Countries have we Signed Civil Nuclear Agreement
Kudomkulam - Russia ; France Built Jatapur Nuclear Plant
India US Nuclear Deal is in a Deadlock
- IAEA - HQ in Vienna - International Atomic Energy Association - Formed in 1954 - India is a Member of it
- Commerical - Waiver of NSG, Non SIgn of NPT & Under IAEA
- Military - Not under IAEA, Indigenous Efforts
Technology for Civilian Use shall not be used for Military Use → this is overlooked by IAEA
Because India is not a member of NPT. India was out of Ambit was IAEA. Condition was put forth for IAED given access to Indian Nuclear Program.
Hence India Divided Its Nuclear Program into Two Parts
P5 has No Binding to IAEA
India Supports Waiver to Pakistan for NSG, but with condition that Civil & Miltary Program should be under IAEA (Becasue they have had Proliferation) - Abhi unka Nuclear Program Out of Control hai kahin se bhi
Good Development in Pakistan & Strogn Democracy in Pakistan is good for India
Criticism of NPT → Sign NPT, Covertly Channel that Technology out of IAEA Eyes for Military Usage, then Make Bomb, Test it, Come out as Nuclear Weapon State → as done by North Korea
- NPT Introduction
Focus on 3 Objecitves of NPT
NPT has failed to Stop Proliferation Completely, 4 Have Acquired but saved many others from acquiring it too
Out of 193 Countries → India, Israel, Pak, North Korea, South Sudan Not Signed has not Signed → 5 Have Not Signed
188 Total Hota Hai → PLO Palestenian Liberation Organisation & ROC Republic of China → They Signed by Saying that help us achieve status of State Hood they will not aspire to have Nuclear Weapon
- Important Terms
- Signed by Head of State
- Ratified by Legislative Body
Historical Background of NPT
India Critices NPT for having extending it for Indefintie Time Period
Pakistan is Not Signing NPT as it said India has not Signed, we have not Signed
Why Does India Oppose Signing of NPT & Criticise NPT
NPT & CTBT are the two treaties which are the steps taken by UN towards Global Nuclear Disarmament. India has made this clear many times, that India will join only a Universal Comprehensive Non Discriminatroy Treaty aiming for Nuke Free World
Some of the Grouds on which India Opposes NPT Are :
- NPT Puts Different Set of Obligations for NWS and NNWS
NPT Defines P5 as Nuclear Wepaon State while all other countries as Non Nuclear Weapon State
Req 1 : According to NPT, NNWS are not allowed to acquire Nuclear Weapons and they should be prevented to do so under exceptional security reasons.
Req 2 : Also According to NPT, Non Nuclear Weapon States needs to keep their Nuclear Installations under International Safeguards i.e IAEA
on the contrary NPT relieves NWS from both of these Obligatons
Hence India Criticises NPT Primarliy for this
- India Argues that this Treaty only prevents the Spread of Nuclear Weapon Technology rather than fulfilling objetive of Global Nuclear Disarmament
According to India there is a Mismatch between Proclaimed Objective and its actual extension as the Preamble of NPT itself talks about Global Nuclear Disarmament
- India has also questioned the effectiveness of NPT as according to India NPT has failed to check the Horizontal Proliferation as Nuke Know How has proliferated to countries like Libya, Iran, North Korea through back door channels
- India has also raised concerns toward the rationality of Dateline as NPT Legitimises the Position of Nuclear Weapon States
as According to NPT those who have acquired weapons till 1967 are legitimate nuclear weapon states
- According to India, NPT Does not take into account the Circumstances that has compelled a country to go for Nuclear Weapon Testing (Subjective Point)
India has objected that NPT does not stand for any time bound disarmament
Should India Sign NPT in its Present Form
To Become a Permanent Member in UN
NO - as NNWS
YES - as NWS
No, According to the Govt of India, India cannot Join NPT as a Non Nuclear Weapon State and Indian Prime Concern is the Date Line that divides Nuclear Weapon State from Non Nuclear Weapon State. In a Recent Statement Given in Parliament by Indian PM that there is no question of India Joining NPT in its present form as Nuclear Weapons are an Integral Part of Indian National Security and they will remain so and India can sign NPT if the reference date is changed to accommodate Indian Demands
CTBT - Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
Pre Cursor to CTBT is PTBT (Partial Test Ban Treaty) also called as “Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty”
PTBT Banned in Land, Air & Atmosphere. India was signatory to this, until and unless P5 Acquired Nuclear Powers they Implemented CTBT.
Testing Banned in Outer Space, Water, Land Surface, Underground, Atmosphere under CTBT.
Under CTBT Computer Stimulation is not banned. P5 is expert in it
Grounds on which India opposes CTBT - Running Notes
- The CTBT was signed in 1996 with the objective to cut down Vertical Proliferation
- Like NPT India Opposes CTBT. Though CTBT has banned the testing of weapons on Land, Underground, Underwater and in Atmosphere but it has not banned the Laboratory Testing through Computer Stimulation Techniques in which P5 have acquired Expertise
- Thus According to India, CTBT also legitimises the position of Nuclear Weapons in the Hands of Few States and allows them to retain and improve them Indefinitely.
- According to India this again shows the Hegemony of P5, thus like NPT, India views CTBT also as Discriminatory.
- We are and we were in Nuke Free World
- India decided to be a party to Nuke Free World post Independence
- Party to IAEA
- Party to PTBT
- 1979 Pokhran Test - We Needed our own Deterrence as US by means of US Navy threatened India in the 1971 War.
- 1998 - We Weaponised our Technology in 1998 as in 1989 USSR left Afghanistan. Islamic Fundamentalists Got Free, they were funded by US & Trained by Pakistan.
- Just after acquiring weapon, India came up with the a Nuclear Doctrine within 2 Years of India being a NWS.
Here also we acquired only Technology and not Weapon, as we didn’t want to put fear in the minds of Pakistan. As after Shimla Agreement India and Pak were moving towards the Kashmir Solution
Here, it was fear in the minds of India that Islamic Fundamentalists in Afghanistan can push the similar agenda of Proxy War by means of Jihad (as they did in Afghanistan) in Kashmir. Here Pakistan also would have supported this as they lost badly in 1989 war
Hence, We Weaponised it in 1998 but within a week Pakistan tested it too. This couldnt have been possible in a week. Hence Indian Side Apprehensions were true
Here, Now India was Pressured to Sign CTBT to Prevent Further Testing, India already being a Signatory of PTBT didn’t Sign CTBT and finally 1998 Pokhran Test 2 could occur
this doctrine said, Minimum Deterrence & No First Use. Pak has no such Doctrine. But China Follows NFU, but it can attack us by its proxy India.
When India announced NFU, India only had capability to launch attack from Land.
Since, 1998 we SIM - Self Imposed Moratorium to NOT Test Weapons again
Mr Parikar in Past - Re Ignited Debate on NFU. If pak is not responsible, then we cant be irresponsible.
India is a Global No First Nuke Free Advocate.
India now has Nuclear Triad
Defence Minister Raj Nath Singh said that Indian NFU is conditional
Grounds on which India opposes CTBT - Dictation
- Indian Criticism Towards NPT & CTBT are not empty or void. India has shown enough credentials in the past to prove its seriousness towards Global Nuclear Disarmament
- Though India Acquired Nuclear Weapon Tech in 1974. India exercised an un parallel restrain by not weaponising its weapon capabilities
- India decided to acquire Nuclear Weapon in 1998 as India was having the Confirm Report that the Military of Pak started looking forward towards the Nuclear Weapon as they wanted to push the Proxy War against India under the Strategy Of Bleeding India through Thousand Cuts
- India in its Nuclear Doctrine, declared that India will maintain Minimum Credible Nuclear Deterrence and India will not engage in Nuclear Arms Race
- India also announced the No First Use Policy & India Believes that Global NFU could be the first step towards the delegitimisation of Nuclear Weapon
- India in its Nuclear Doctrine has also announced the Self Imposed Moratorium i.e a Voluntary Ban on Future Nuclear Weapon Testing
- Indian Nuclear Doctrine
Last Line to be used in Conclusion of the Indian Commitment to Global, Verifiable & Non Discriminatory Disarmament
Marx View of Capitalist - to kill capitalist
Gandhian View of Capitalist - Sarvodaya or Trusteeship
India and the UN (United Nation)
- Read UN from Booklet
- UN & its Relevance
- Prevented Third World War
- Need to More Relevance - Looking forward to Permanent Membership
- UN was not created to Turn Earth into Heaven but to prevent Earth into Turning into Hell
Evaluation of Indians’ Membership at UNSC?
At Present Security Council consist of Five Permanent and Ten Non Permanent Members elected by General Assembly for Two Years.
HW : How Many Times India has been elected as Non Permanent Members of UNSC ?
Currently India is not a Non Permanent Member
Secretary General : Antonio Guterres for 5 Years is a Portuguese
Secretary General cant be from P5 but you have to be recommended by UN Security Council
Absenteeism Doesn't Mean Veto, It means Neutrality
The Permanent Members enjoy the Veto Power that is the final say on Substantive Matters or Final Matter. The Word Veto is No Where Mentioned in the UN Charter
The Grounds on which India Claims Permanent Membership Are :
- India is the Largest Democracy in the World
- India has consistently displayed Signs of Democratic Maturity → Army in Barracks, Free & Fair Election, Transfer of Power
According to India, Our Record in the Field of Rule of Law and Respect for Human Rights is Impressive.
- According to India the Present Composition of Security Council does not reflect the Contemporary Global Realities as the size of economy of Germany, Japan and India are much bigger than the economy of Britain and France
- According to India, It has made Immense Contributions towards the Fulfilment of Goals and Objectives of UN and Indian Policies of Non Alignment reflects the policies & values of UN
- India has contributed Towards Resistance to Colonialism, Terrorism and Racialism.
- P5 are not serious towards expansion of veto holding membership as this would dilute their privilege positions, the extension of UNSC requires, the amendment in the UN Charter which needs to be passed by 2/3 members of UN General Assembly and 9 Members of Security Council including P5 ; If any one the P5 disagrees it will not come into force
- FACT : Once a Extension of Permanent Veto is defeated. We cannot put it again for the next 10 Years
- Also there are multiple contenders for the permanent membership in UNSC. The Strongest Contender for Permanent Membership of UNSC are G4.
- AU is Demanding 3 Seats for the African states and there are multiple contenders from Africa (Egypt, South Africa, Namibia, Ethiopia)
- OIC - Organisation of Islamic Countries is seeking 1 seat for representation for the Islamic World
- Coffee Club - Also known as Uniting for Consensus is a Grouping of Countries created under the Leadership of Italy and they are demanding No extension should be taken until and unless there is consensus on that. Member State of Coffee Club are Regional Rivals of G4 like Italy, Spain, Korea, Pak, Turkey, Argentina, Mexico, Canada
Thus According to India, it has always played the role of non permanent member in the UNSC. India has always made contributions towards the Peace Keeping Operation of UN, India is the Largest Contributor Towards UN peace Keeping Operations
Though India has an Excellent Track Record as a Responsible Member of UN, there is pressing need to reform Security Council, yet Indian Chances to become a Permanent Member of UNSC are not Bright as
Giving Equal Power is Perfect Recipe for Deadlock. There has to be a Balance of Power
India has many times asked to be member of OIC but Pak has hindered it. Pak cannot be the voice of Indian Muslims
Until Now Only China has hindered Indian Entry to UNSC
India-Pakistan Relationship
Dynamics of India-Pak Relationship
A Communist State and a Islamic State cannot Teach India Secularism
Read From Handout for India Pak Relations. Read India After Gandhi by R C Guha after Mains Examination in free time.
Phases in Indo-Pakistan Ties
Indian Politics is Governed by 3 C’s - Caste, Community, Cash rather than Character, Caliber, Capacity
Pak Govt Works on 3 A’s - America, Allah, Arms
The Trajectory of Indo Pak ties since the birth of the two states, can be explained on the basis of three not so distinct phases.
1947 - 1971 → Phase of Direct Confrontation (3 Main Wars)
It is characterised by Dealing with Problems emanating from Partition, the most contentious issue which emerged between the two was the issue of Kashmir which pushed both the states towards direct military conflicts
The Kashmir Issue Between the Two
Both India and Pakistan has larger Political Stakes, within Kashmir and this state has become the issue of National Prestige for either of the two countries. The State of J&K has a very heterogenetic character with regards to its geography and culture and the whole state of J&K can be treated as the conglomeration of these distinctive reasons i.e Jammu Region, Kashmir Valley, Mountainous Gilgit Baltistan and Ladakh Plateau
These Regions were Brought into a United Political Unit by Maharaja Gulab Singh who entered into a Subsidiary Alliance with British. thus Kashmir was under the political control of a Hindu Ruler where the Majority Population was Muslim. After Independence this State was Sought by Pakistan on the basis of its Muslim Majority. However the Ruler of Kashmir was not able to make up his mind and he decided to sign a Stand Still Agreement with Both India and Pakistan
In October, 1947 Free Arms Tribes Men (Supported by Pak Army) invaded Kashmir and the ruler of Kashmir made a desperate appeal to the Indian Govt for Military Help. India Govt agreed to help in the assurance that Kashmir will be ceded with India. However, Pak Described this accession to be based on fraud, deceit or violence and since then the state of pak has maintained that this step of india was totally against the wishes of its long oppressed Muslim Subjects.
As India moved its troops to halt the invaders, the first Indo Pak War Broke out, after few months of fighting India decided to take this issue to UN and UN Recommended Plebiscite. Since then India has maintained this stand on the issue of Kashmir
1972 - 1998 → Phase of Normalisation (Bleeding India through thousand Cuts)
1999 - Present → Phase of Proxy War
Fourth Phase - Era of Peace & Prosperity or MAD - Just An Option
Kashmir Issue
Indian Position on Kashmir - Read from Handout
Accordingly, the Indian Position in the face of Pakistan Propaganda Over the years has remained consistent
Read from Handout
Where Lies the Solution of Kashmir
On the Other Side of Border
How Committed India is towards Peace Process
Kashmir Issue again led to the War of 1965 between India and Pakistan which ended with the Mediation of Soviet Union when both the countries signed the Tashkent Agreement on 4 Jan 1966
Under this Agreement
- Both Agreed to Make Efforts to create peaceful neighbouring ties and both re affirmed their affirmation under UN Charter to not use force for the settlement of their disputes
- Both Decided Not to Interfere in the Internal Affairs of Each Other
- India Agreed to Withdraw its Armed Forces as before the Outbreak of War
- As a Consequence of this Agreement India Agreed to Give Back around 900 Sq Miles of Territory Captured in J&K during the course of the war
Note: in 1971 War we won almost all of PoK and in Shimla Agreement we gave PoK
Note: First Attack was done by Pakistan in every Indo Pak War
- However, this Agreement failed to Normalise the Ties between the Two Countries as soon second major military encounter took place between the two countries on the issue of the independence of east pakistan as the military general of pakistan Yahya Khan refused to handover the political power to the Democratically Elected Leader of Pakistan i.e Sheikh Mujeeb Ur Rehman. An Army Unleashed the Reign of terror within East Pakistan. This Pushed Lacs of Bengalis to cross over India. The Govt of India protested against the situation and decided to mobilise world opinion against these dictorial acts of the state of pakistan
Question : How many times Coup has taken place in Pakistan and who was the Military General
Analysis : Whenever Military took over, our relationships condition degraded
- The Govt of Pak took these steps of india as an interference in its internal affairs and blamed india for working against agreement of Tashkent Agreement.
- Pakistan Launched a Massive Air Strike along the western borders and this started a full scale war between the two which India won comprehensively
- Pakistani Forces Surrendered on 16 December 1971 and this war shattered the dream of Pakistan having Military Parity Against India.
- This was the time when new leadership of pakistan was willing to normalise its ties with India which finally led to the signing of Shimla Agreement on 03rd July 1972 between Indira Gandhi and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.
- Under this Agreement, both agreed to cease hostility and hatred propaganda against each other.
- Under this Agreement India Agreed to withdraw its armed forces and decided to respect the boundary as existed before the outbreak of the war.
- The Name of the Cease Fire Line was changed to LOC.
- To Respect this Agreement India Agreed to Give Back, the territory of Around 500 Square Miles captured in J&K during the course of the war
- India also agreed to release around 90,000 soldiers which were captured during the war.
- What Justification was given by Indira Gandhi in giving back Pok
- Creation of Bangladesh
- Release of Sheikh Mujeeb Ur Rehman
- Pak coming out of CENTO and Joining NAM
- Pushing Away Cold War from Indian Norther Shores
- Pak Agreeing that Kashmir is a Bi Lateral Issue
- Comparison: India Pak War as compared to Israel Arab War, India gave back land and Israel kept capturing land
Issue of Siachen Glacier from Handout
Shimla Agreement & The Three Indian Phases
First Phase
- Both Sided decided to Solve their existing problems including the problem of J&K through Bi Lateral Negotiations and this became one of the most significant of this agreement
- However the Successive Governments in Pakistan have violated this provision and they have raised the issue of Kashmir and India has always maintained this stand that the involvement of third party in solving Kashmir goes against the provisions of Bi Lateral Positions incorporated in Shimla Agreement.
- Shimla Agreement is marked by relative normalisation of ties between the Two and it let to the start of second phase in Indo Pak Relationship.
Second Phase
- in 1975, Pakistan Renounced, the membership of cento and finally came out of it in 1979 and in the same year decided to join NAM and India supported the entry of Pakistan into NAM
- In 1988, Rajeev Gandhi visited Pak various CBM’s (Confidence Building Measures) were signed. Both the sides decided that they will share information about their nuclear installations and facilities and their commitment to not attack each other nuclear installations and this agreement is still being followed
- Both sides also discussed the possibility of signing a no war pact. However, No Understanding was fund on this issue
- The end of cold war changed the geo politics of the region and the world as Soviet union was disintegrated which emboldened the military of Pakistan and the military of pak decided to push proxy war against india under the Strategy of Bleeding India through Thousand Cuts.
- The Military of Pakistan decided to acquire nuclear weapon to cut down the Chances of Traditional War Against india.
- This was the time when India decided to weaponise its nuclear technology and in the next year i.e in 1998 india declared itself as a de facto Nuclear Weapon State
within a week pakistan reacted with its first nuclear weapon state. This created huge trust deficit between the two. Both Entered the third phase holding nuclear weapons
Third Phase
- Another Major Effort during this period was signing of Lahore Declaration when PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited Lahore and Started Delhi Lahore Bus Service known as Bus Diplomacy.
- Under Lahore Declaration both Leaders Accepted, that the issue of Kashmir is to be solved within the framework of Shimla Agreement, though Kargil war wiped out the gains made from this declaration and Kargil war proved conclusively that there are multiple centres of power in pakistan and they have huge influence in pakistan. They have huge influence in the Internal politics of pakistan
- After Kargil war india again initiated Fresh Measures to ease tensions after the Kargil War through Agra Summit when India Invited Parvez Musharraf during the discussion he described the terrorists groups operating in Kashmir as Mujahid and held that Kashmir is the Nucleus of Disputed in Indo Pak Ties and without solving it. No Meaningful peace can be restored. Such a Rigid Stand brought the summit to an unexpected end.
- However, the terrorist attack in 2001 on Parliament of India. again proved the futility of peace negotiations. with civilian leadership. Thus for India pak sponsored Terrorism is a Major Issue of Confrontation between the Two while for the Pakistan Kashmir is the Nucleus of Dispute
- Because of this two Divergent Practise, the Dialouge process between the two is in deadlock
- Since the Pulwama attack. The Present Stand of Govt of India is Trade and Terror cannot flow together
- Note : Against Monarchy its Revolution, Against Democracy its Terrorism
In a democracy, means to acquire power is Ballot and not Bullet
Indo Pak Ties under China Factor
Other than having hatred against India, China and pakistan have little in common. The close military and strategic ties between the two has adversely impacted, the Indo Pak Relationship.
Note : Now Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapon and supply of Armory is by China. This makes J&K a Tri Lateral Disputes.
IN 1963, Pakistan handed over a territory in the PoK Region, to China, which Chain claimed as Part of Tibet and this marks the Start of the Straetgic Ties between the Two.
Also Pakistans Nuclear and Missile Development Programs, runs with the Close cooperation of China
China supports the stand of Pakistan, on the issue of Kashmir, the dependence of Pakistan on China is likely to grow in a Situation where, Pakistans ties with US are deteriorating, by each passing day.
Also the Public Opinion in Pakistan has tilted towards Beijing, there have been calls in Pakistan to consider China as its biggest allies
China and Pak use these words to describe their Relationship
Recently Chinese Premeir Xi Jinping has described the relationship between the two as an All Weather Friendship which is
- Our Ties are Taller than Himalayas
- Deeper than Pacific
- Sweeter than Honey
Pashtuns - God should protect you from
- Teeth of Tiger
- Venom of Cobra
- Revenge of Pashtun
However, the recent violence in Chinas XinXiang Province has raised doubts towards supporting Pakistan, as the state of Pakistan has failed to control Terror. This is the biggest concern within China, towards its relationship with Pakistan.
India-Afghanistan Relationship
Intrests of Different Stakeholders in Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Leadership of Ashraf Ghani was looking forward for the peace negotiations with Taliban and was ready for the power sharing agreement or arrangement. Ashraf Ghani realised that Pakistan holds the key for the stability of Afghanistan.
The Leadership of Northern Alliance stood for the republic of Afghanistan. With adequate protection to the interests of minorities.
The Leadership of Taliban, in the last phase of their struggle agreed to participate in peace talks with US in Doha, on the assurance that US will go for immediate withdrawl (assurance by trump)
Leadership of Taliban was also looking towards Pakistan, to play a important role in the peace process.
Taliban wants to establish the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and they want to adopt a Islamic Constitution framed by Islamic Scholars.
Since the Withdrawal of US, Taliban has took over the Political Control of Afghanistan. Since then Taliban has been looking forward for the Legitimacy for International Community.
Pakistan
Pakistan wants to maintain its Strategic depth within Afghanistan with the Help of Afghan Taliban. US Started its war against Taliban in 2001, under it GWOT (Global War against Terror), blaming Taliban for supporting Al Qaeda
United States
With time, US realised that Taliban cant be defeated and US president Trump agreed to start direct peace talks with Taliban as US was looking forward for the Withdrawal of their forces from Afghanistan.
US agreed for the immediate withdrawal from the region, however within US there was a opposition against this decision of President Trump as there was a threat that immediate withdrawal will back Taliban into power which will be a blot on US Diplomacy.
The Afghan government was looking forward towards the presence of NATO within Afghanistan, till the contours of power sharing agreement are not finalised.
Afghan Government at the same time was demanding the phased withdrawal of NATO forces from region.
US Govt again started looking towards Pakistan, realising the depth that military of pakistan holds over afghanistan.
US in the peace talks agreed to transfer power, in the hands of, Taliban on the condition that Taliban will not allow the soil of Afghanistan, to be used for Terrorist Activities against the US and the west.
US President Biden, decided to stick to the dateline announced by Trump and US went for immediate withdrawal for Afghaistan claiming that US has won the war against Terror and US never entered Afghanistan to establish Democracy and it is the reponsibility of Afghanistan to bring democracy in their country.
Russia
When US Started its war against Terror and NATO forces entered into afghanistan, russia decided to support the efforts of US and the West, as Islamic Fundamentalism is also a threat for Russia.
as there is a violent insurgency that prevails in the chechanya region of Russia. However, after Arab Spring, Tensions escalated between US & Russia as US Blamed Russia for suppressing democracy in Syria by supporting the authoritarian regime of Bashr Al Asad
Tensions further escalated between West & Asia on the Issue of Cremia as Russia annexed Cremia from Ukraine in 2014
and west blamed Russia for the Expansionist Policies of Soviet Era, and they expelled Russia from G 8 grouping.
As Tensions escalated with the west, russia started feeling uncomfortable with the presence of Military bases of NATO in its backyard.
When Trump agreed for direct peace negotitation with Taliban, Russia realised that US is looking forward for the withdrawal from the region and In future Taliban is going to be a important political player in the region.